The holiday season is upon us, and while we all wait in anticipation for the man in the red suit to deliver presents, there’s a small team of scientists who have taken on a Herculean task: tracking Santa Claus in real time. Enter NORAD, Biomedware, and a pinch of holiday magic—because let’s face it, Santa is as elusive as a unicorn on a skateboard. But don’t worry, we have science on our side.

The Hunt Begins: NORAD and Biomedware Team Up

Now, most of us are familiar with NORAD’s (North American Aerospace Defense Command) annual tradition of tracking Santa on Christmas Eve. They’ve been doing it for years, using satellites, radar systems, and the ever-precise art of “Santa-spotting.” But what if we told you there’s a lesser-known group that has joined the effort to pinpoint Santa’s exact location—not just using radar and sleigh bells, but using sophisticated geostatistical methods? That’s where Biomedware’s specialty in geospatial analysis comes in.

While NORAD has been busy tracking Santa’s sleigh through the airspace, Biomedware has been applying some of their cutting-edge statistical models to help optimize Santa’s route, making sure his reindeer never fly too close to the sun—or, you know, that dangerous airspace above the Bermuda Triangle. How do they do this? By using a little thing called Poisson Kriging.

What is Poisson Kriging, and How Does It Help Track Santa?

First off, if you’re wondering, “What in the world is Poisson Kriging?”—don’t worry. It’s not a dish at your local French bistro (though it does sound delicious). Poisson Kriging is a type of geospatial model used to estimate the probability of events happening at different locations. In this case, the “event” is a Santa sighting. The method is based on Poisson processes, which are used to model rare events, like those sporadic sightings of a jolly old man flying across the night sky.

Here’s the kicker: Santa sightings are incredibly rare and can happen anywhere across the globe. This makes Santa’s flight path one of the most challenging phenomena to predict. But fear not! Poisson Kriging allows us to calculate the likelihood of seeing Santa in specific regions by analyzing past sightings, predicting where Santa is most likely to appear, and assigning probabilities to those spots. It’s like a weather forecast for Santa sightings, but with less rain, more reindeer, and lots of cookies.

The “Santa Sightings” Dataset

Imagine, for a second, that we had data on past Santa sightings. These might come from reports, children’s letters, or the occasional overzealous mall Santa impersonator who thinks he’s been spotted from the North Pole. Using these data, Poisson Kriging would create a model that assigns probabilities to different geographic areas.

Let’s say there have been a few Santa sightings in New York City (thanks to Rudolph’s glowing nose), but fewer sightings in the Australian Outback (where Santa’s sleigh doesn’t quite blend in with the kangaroos). The Poisson Kriging algorithm would be able to take those sparse data and generate a probability map of where Santa’s sleigh is most likely to appear. So, in real-time, NORAD could call up Biomedware’s system and say, “Where’s Santa at this moment?” and, voilà! A geospatial heat map of the best possible locations for sighting Saint Nick would appear.

What Does This Mean for Santa Fans Everywhere?

NORAD handles Santa’s GPS tracking with the elegance of a space mission, but Biomedware is making it possible to understand the spatial patterns behind Santa’s nocturnal journey. So, while NORAD can tell you exactly where Santa’s sleigh is at this very moment, Biomedware’s model gives you the probability of seeing him in your neighborhood based on previous sightings and other geospatial factors.

Now, what does this mean for the rest of us? It means you could have a much better chance of catching a glimpse of Santa, and maybe, just maybe, you’ll be the lucky one to snap the first real picture of him (just be sure to have a camera that works in the dark!).

And as for the elves? Well, they’ve been busy with their own form of “Kriging” to ensure Santa’s gifts are mapped out with the highest efficiency. That’s right, Santa’s workshop has gone full data-driven. They don’t just “hope for the best” when it comes to gift delivery—they use data analytics, just like the best of us. Because even Santa can’t afford to take chances.

The Science Behind the Magic 

The next time you check NORAD’s Santa tracker, remember that it’s not just about radar systems and Christmas magic. Behind the scenes, there’s a dedicated team using Poisson Kriging and other geospatial models to help predict where and when Santa might make his next appearance. With the combined might of NORAD’s satellites and Biomedware’s geospatial analysis, we’re one step closer to making every Santa sighting less “once in a lifetime” and more “happening right now, on your street corner.”

Interested in modeling the spatial probability of rare events yourself?  You can find Poisson kriging in BioMedware’s SpaceStat software.

Happy holidays, everyone. Keep an eye out for jolly old Saint Nick—and don’t forget to check your local probability map!